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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-12-24T02:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-24T02:30Z
CME Note: An asymmetric, likely O-type CME seen to the north and east in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a bright bulk directed north and east and a fainter/wider shock which deflects north and west over the central meridian. It is associated with a filament eruption on the Earth facing disk located at approximately N20E28 located to the east of AR3174 and is characterized by liftoff of plasma and subsequent post eruptive arcades and brightening seen in SDO 171/193/304. See DONKI entry "CME 2022-12-24T02:48Z" for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-26T12:03Z (-13.0h, +10.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 54.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2022-12-24T02:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20221224-AL-003). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2022-12-25T22:57Z and 2022-12-27T05:03Z (average arrival 2022-12-26T10:32Z) for 75% of simulations.
- STEREO B between about 2022-12-26T04:52Z and 2022-12-26T21:54Z (average arrival 2022-12-26T13:29Z) for 25% of simulations.
- Mars between about 2022-12-27T10:22Z and 2022-12-28T12:15Z (average arrival 2022-12-27T22:06Z) for 45% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2022-12-26T01:37Z and 2022-12-27T01:03Z (average arrival 2022-12-26T12:03Z) for 54% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 84% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_arrival_Mars.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_Mars_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_STA_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2022-12-24T02:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at Solar Orbiter at 2022-12-26T15:29Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20221224-AL-003).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2022-12-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162/Detailed_results_20221224_054100_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX162.txt

Lead Time: 36.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2022-12-24T23:16Z

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